Here's the ultra short range high-res HRRR model which has been very consistent so far with this system. By noon there should be punishing rates of snow coming down in the pink areas (snow) and this should persist until at least 3PM.

Looking out my front door, it looks SO beautiful ...
BUT WHEN IS IT GOING TO END?!?!?

more snow tuesday nite and this saturday also..

This has been one of the most stubborn snow/rain lines I've ever seen. Even though there was high pressure pushing it southeast, low pressure at the 850mb level has pushed the warmer rain back against it. These are mesoscale (short-range analysis) situations that are impossible to detect until it happens. For this reason, most of SNJ is a rainy bust today. NNJ saw a bit more than the expected but the heaviest axis of snow Philly<->NJTP<->NYC performed exactly as expected. The western edge of precipitation is on its way east which should start wrapping up precipitation by 3PM or so.

This is the first of a train of winter storms this week. Tomorrow night into Wednesday looks like a snow to rain situation with NWNJ having the best chance to stay all snow and SENJ having the best chance to stay all rain. For everyone in-between the changeover process (reverse from today-from south to north) could produce ice in the form of sleet and/or freezing rain.

Then we turn our heads to the weekend. There is still a lot of uncertainty which is why I've chosen to wait until Wednesday 12Z model suite to start confident analysis. Radar image reproduced from Penn State University's EWALL site.

Man, the whole county I live in averages just under a mile high. We're at 4800 feet or so I think, and all year with it snowing right this minute, we've gotten maybe a total of 12 inches or so all winter. It's melting as it hits the ground. However, it is still 7-15 degrees at night and near freezing in the day, until Friday it said yesterday.

You guys must all have snow blowers. eh?

Tony makes his wife go out an shovel it by hand.

... shovel?!? ... SHOVEL?!? ... she don't need no stinkin' shovel ...

Some enterprising guys found a way to make a few extra bucks to add to the pensions...it's quiet too...emissions are relatively low...with the right amount of fiber.

How does Uncle Dave get 4 or 5 inches, and I get 8 plus inches...??
Only 4 miles apart..

I bet Dave has a different doctor.


Ian

Don't need no doctor! Not yet, anyway. Fran's the old timer in our posse ... not sure if he even knows HOW to measure inches anymore.