I’ll go out on a limb and say ‘never’!

From what I ve read at Korgforums, the only people happy with their PA5x are people that never had a PA4x! There’s just too much stuff from the 4x that is going to be added back ‘later’. It’s over two YEARS now, still next to nothing added back in. Many core bugs remain, or to be more generous, basic features that have not been implemented well. In the past, most TOTL arrangers had maybe one year of updates to squash the bugs and add the odd new feature in. After that, they were basically finished. Korg is dragging their feet horribly with the pace of polishing the 5x. Too long for anyone that has been in the Korg ecosystem for any length of time.

This is the first Korg arranger that took this long to correct errors and add in promised features. Their next model (if they even bother) is going to be met with massive skepticism from the base.

As to Roland…

Roland have not only left the pro arranger market, but also have moved very strongly towards synth production rather than ROMplers (workstations), which is the core sound engine of every arranger. While an arranger based on synth engines might be interesting, it’s going to alienate most traditional arranger users.

Roland Italy basically designed the arranger software to run the provided Roland Japan sound engines. They also did most of the ROM style creation. So consequently Roland couldn’t offshore arranger creation to China, just manufacturing. It’s the design and voicing that make or break an arranger, and Roland Japan couldn’t cut those costs any further. It’s a dwindling market, unsuitable for most of today’s synth driven music. Time to get out….

They won’t be back unless kids in their droves start using them, and the ROM sounds and styles pretty much guarantee that won’t happen.

The BK9 sound expansion (which made it to the labeling on the front panel) seems to be something abandoned pretty early in development, there are no SRX slots or any other open multi pins inside hinting at future expansion. Somebody I suppose forgot to take the wording off the front panel silkscreening..! On the upside, the BK9’s ROM sounds include many sounds from several SRX cards, and weren’t an expensive upgrade.

There are two or three minor updates that could have transformed the BK9 with little additional development, and justified a BK10. One would be linking the saved chord sequence to the Performance, and the same with linking the .jpg display to the Performance. Integrated sheet music and full lyric display! And a huge selection of audio loops for the Key Audio feature would have made the feature almost as good as a multipad player. It was only the lack of content that doomed the feature…

So close!

Arranger decline:
In the 70s and 80s the hone entertainment organ was king, with a boatload of different manufactures from all over the world, however by the 90s the number of manufactures had diminished with the number of models on the market being significantly reduced, those remaining manufactures continuing through the 00s and 10s, but come the 20s only 3 remain (Wersi, Bohm & Ringway (Although if you don't mind importing from Japan you can still get a Yamaha) which are ticking along very nicely in what is now a niche market.
The Arranger keyboard took over from the hone entertainment organ in the 90s, with a boatload of different manufacture out there, these became thinned out in the 00s with only the big boys remaining, which soldiered on into the 10s, however by the 20s only 3 where really doing anything substantial (Yamaha, Korg & Ketron) in what has now become the final stages before they become niche.
So yes, the arranger keyboard is dying, as people move on to other things. (The phone and iPad are the in things these days)
Although not technically arranger keyboards (There actually organs with arrange capabilities) both Bohm & Wersi make a single keyboard version of their organs, which rather than being regularly replaced are constantly upgraded with new hardware and software that works out a lot cheaper. (Also, as they are organ first, then if you add pedals and a second keyboard you have a full organ that operates exactly the same as the larger organs)
Wersi & Bohm also have comprehensive Midi specs (Something lacking in most arranger keyboards) so that you can add the latest arranger keyboard (With all its bells and whistles) to give you another keyboard that operates as if they are one instrument.
One more thing to take into account, is that most arranger keyboard players are more mature and will not be around forever, thus the market will dwindle even further.
It's sad, buts that life.

Bill

You're leaving out Casio. In 2016 (AFTER the E-A7), Casio released the MZ-X500 which was their most fully-featured arranger/synth since the MZ-2000 in Y2K. It had a large screen, multipads, stored chord progressions, etc. For a few reasons, especially the crappy keybed, it didn't meet with widespread acceptance but the potential is/was there. Like Yamaha, Casio sells a LOT of keyboards at the entry level. Most, or at least many of them have arranger-like features which will create expectations in their user base. They have the software and feature set. Arrangers are 80% software so the hard part is done. The remaining 20% is CONTENT. There are plenty of 3rd-party utilities that will convert older Yamaha styles. Unlike Rolands, Casios are "smart" enough to read and render the styles faithfully unless they use MegaVoices, etc.

If Casio releases a "CT-S900" with on-board style creation, perhaps a few more physical buttons and a larger display, it would be knocking on the door of a Roland BK-5, at least. Casio are a MUCH bigger player in terms of numbers than Wersi, Bohm, and Ringway, all of which I've only seen a handful of times in the USA. More portable and affordable, too.

Ketron? They are a pimple barely worth mentioning. How many boards do they sell worldwide? Also, they have a habit of releasing the next model before all of the bugs are worked out of the previous one. Support? Exactly ONE provider in the US, and perhaps none in Canada. If you watch some recent YouTube reviews by a dedicated and open-minded expert, caveat emptor (and this echoes my own personal experience with this brand.)

IMO there is room for another volume player. Software, source code can be sold. I've said it before, if Roland doesn't want to build a dedicated arranger (and it seems like they don't), then they should embed some of their arranger source code in their MIDI controllers, combo organs, or license it to another company. My $.02.

Apart from your mention I haven't heard the name Casio in Arranger keyboard circles for donkeys' years, so not a big player at all. (Except in very low entry models (which Yamaha also do), with most of them left in the cupboard shortly after Christmas)

Bill

Unfortunately, it looks very much like the decline of the home organ (I would argue that it didn’t really even survive into the 80’s, except as a dwindling niche like ours) is being repeated. And unfortunately the decline of the home organ only left the most expensive models as survivors. Few now can even afford the ‘survivors’, the affordable home organ market is nonexistent.

I think I see this trend starting in arrangers. Korg hasn’t updated their PA1000 in 7 years. Ketron never really have made a midline model, only Yamaha seem to take the midline seriously, but most of their focus seems to be on the Genos.

As our market shrinks, to remain viable arrangers MUST get more expensive. Sales may drop but R&D remains the same. We’ve had 10 years of avoiding the crunch as almost everyone offshored manufacturing to China, but things can’t really get any cheaper than that, and the inevitable climb I think is starting.

Both Korg and Yamaha have very robust synth and workstation divisions, I can only imagine their boards are looking at dwindling arranger sales and asking themselves’Why bother?’. You either sell a LOT of cheaper arrangers, or you sell a few very expensive ones.

Right now, I think we need to treat our current arrangers VERY carefully, maybe even order a few spare parts that get a lot of wear and have a high risk of failure, maybe even buy a used one of the same model as a spare (I’ve got 2 BK9’s!). If there is a new model, it may not be for a while, and it may be quite a lot more expensive…